For the fifth straight week, I picked more losers than winners. This has become academic. If you just look at how amateur my logic, knowledge, and acumen for gambling is, and spotted this at week one, you could have taken every pick I made and bet the farm on the opposite. Last week I was 5-8. For the season, my record is 16-34-2.
That means that if you bet every game at even money on the Houston Astros this year, you’d have more success than I’ve had picking NFL games this year. It also means that you would have had better luck picking the Sacramento Kings every night last season in the NBA.
It means that if you decided to bet just $5 per game in week one, and then double that amount in week two upon seeing that you lost, and then double that amount upon seeing that you lost in week three, and then double that amount upon seeing that you lost in week four, and that double that amount upon seeing that you list in week five that you would be down $585.
Or, if you prefer the glass half-full, you are just four more correct picks than wrong picks this week from being up $55 if you double the amount per game again this week.
That being said, it’s time to lay down $160 per game and get to work.
Oakland (+10.5) over HOTLANTA: This line opened at 7.5. The world is way too high on the Falcons right now who I think could will lose at least four times before this season is out. Tony Gonzalez is using the same steroids as Raul Ibanez, but I still don’t think that gives him the right to play as he has been. On the other end, the Raiders have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Darren McFadden is healthy and hasn’t really displayed much of yet. He will get it going in this one.
Cincinnati (-2) over CLEVELAND: Trent Richardson is awesome, but the Browns did not get as much quality from their rookie quarterback in the draft last year. The Bengals meanwhile are coming off of a disappointing loss at home to the Dolphins. I would look for them to come out scorching on Sunday. Done are the days of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis fumbles.
St. Louis (+4.5) over MIAMI: Something about picking road teams just has me excited this week. It makes no sense given how well home teams played in Week 5, but this is the stuff that leads to being successful 32% of the time. Both teams had nice weeks last week, but I like the Rams more because I saw more of their game. Again, 32% of the time I am successful. Even the great Albert Pujols would take that.
NY JETS (-3) over Indianapolis: This makes sense. Young quarterback going into New York versus veteran quarterback fighting for his job. I think the Jets find offense from Wayne Chrebet and win this thing by double digits.
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Detroit: Michael Vick is a dog owner again. He’s also slowly heading into the dog house. Anyone else see the Vick turnover breakdown on Mike and Mike this week? He is making a ton of mistakes. That said, the guy is better than this. If the Eagles play a clean game, there’s no way they don’t cover.
Kansas City (+4.5) over TAMPA BAY: The Chiefs offense couldn’t do any worse than they did last week against the Ravens, so Matt Cassel’s injury is probably the best thing for them. Brady Quinn was 3 for 3 in quick relief. Also, Jamaal Charles is back. The Buccaneers aren’t as good as the Ravens, so I like my chances in this one.
Dallas (+3.5) over BALTIMORE: There is just something about taking teams on a bye that appeals to me. Teams outside of Tampa Bay and Detroit that is. The Ravens will still be without Terrell Suggs, and while the defense hasn’t looked too bad in his absence, they could use him against a clever quarterback like Tony Romo.
ARIZONA (-4) over Buffalo: The Bills have given up 97 points the last two weeks. Why isn’t this spread bigger?
New England (-3.5) over SEATTLE: The Seawhawks’ quarterback isn’t a good passer. Listening to Bill Belichick try to speak positively of Russell Wilson, it appeared even he was not sold in the strengths of Wilson. There’s no way New England can’t outscore Seattle.
NY Giants (+6.5) over San Francisco: Did things really change that much since they played back in January at the same ballpark? Hakeem Nicks isn’t that good.
WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Minnesota: Don’t think for a second that the Nationals front office isn’t rooting for RG III to start, get some sort of head injury, and then tell the whole city that they were justified in exercising caution with their franchise’s most important player. It’s not going to happen though. Minnesota’s run ends here.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Green Bay: I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl this year. Consequently, I have picked them to cover every week this year. I’m tired of having them fail me. I’m just tired period.
SAINT DIEGO (+1) over Denver: The Whale’s Vaginas are favored at home. Peyton Manning has looked good lately, but the Denver defense has been his greatest fuel. The Broncos did lose by 10 last week right?