(As per usual, The King is in transit today. I'm posting on his behalf) Starting Five: PG Mo Williams, SG Gordon Hayward, SF Marvin Williams, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Jefferson
Key Bench Players: PG Earl Watson, SG Raja Bell, SG Randy Foye, SG Alec Burks, SF Jeremy Evans, PF Derrick Favors, C Enes Kanter
Notable offseason additions: PG Devin Harris, G Mo Williams
Notable offseason subtractions: SG Randy Foye, SF Josh Howard
Kevin O’Connor received an awful lot of Executive of the Year Support for someone who failed at their job.
Back in February, 2011, O’Connor
made the decision to start the rebuilding process when he traded Deron Williams
to the Nets for Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and two first round picks. It was
a great move by O’Connor – the Jazz had no chance of competing before Williams became a free agent and inevitably left utah. By trading
him with a year and a half left on his contract, he was able to maximize his
value and avoid the fiasco the Nuggets experienced in trading Carmelo Anthony.
O’Connor, like everybody else,
figured the Jazz would have to endure a losing year but be rewarded with the lottery
pick in a loaded 2012 draft that would help the team in their rebuilding
process. The Jazz roster didn’t buy into
the plan however, finishing a surprising 36-30 and earning the eighth seed in
the Western Conference playoffs. As
result, they lost their lottery protected pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves (in a trade involving Darius Songaila and Antonio Daniels from 2009, of all things).
Missing out on a lottery pick
because the Jazz overachieved likely didn’t upset most fans. What is likely
upsetting them however, or at least should be, is that management is convinced
the Jazz are ready to contend, as evidenced by the trades for Mo and Marvin
Williams.
As one of the top five-units in
the league, the Jazz frontcourt is certainly championship caliber. Al Jefferson
is a prolific scorer down low and only his subpar defense is keeping him from
being an elite player. At 27 years old, he’s likely to match or exceed last
year’s production. Starting power forward Paul Millsap has really blossomed
into quite the player as well, averaging a career best 8.8 rebounds per game
last year.
The real gem in the front court
though is Derrick Favors. Only 21 years of age, he still has a lot to learn but
did show significant improvement last year. At 6’ 10’’, he’s a little shorter
than the ideal center. However, he has the athletic ability to develop into a
dominating defensive anchor and has shown enough offensive promise that dreams
of him becoming a perennial all-star don’t seem too far-fetched.
Enes Kanter, last year's number three overall pick, appears to be another
promising frontcourt player for the Jazz. He’s still very raw on both ends of
the floor, but showed a knack for rebounding in limited minutes last year. Plus he's gigantic and terrifying looking.
The real issue for the Jazz is there
is their backcourt. Gordon Hayward improved leaps and bounds in his second year
and Alec Burks showed a lot of promise as well, but both players are still
developing and are probably another year or two away from being good starters.
The overpaid Marvin Williams, who O’Connor bewilderingly traded Devin Harris’
expiring contract in exchange for (Marvin Williams has two years and nearly $16 million on his deal),
and Raja Bell are rotation players, but neither of those players are
difference makers.
Point guard is probably the most
troubling position for the Jazz. The Jazz used their trade exception this
offseason to acquire Mo Williams, a move that can only be justified (and even
then barely so) if you are looking to contend this year. I will admit Williams
does bring much-needed outside shooting to the Jazz, but as previously
discussed, the Jazz aren’t contending this year so I don’t see the point in filling
that need with a one-year stop gap who can't facilitate and groaned about a contract extension last season. There are those that believe Alec Burks has
the chance to develop into a starting PG which certainly changes the complexion
of the Jazz. But considering that he can’t shoot and had almost as many
turnovers as assists last year, I think
it’s safe to say that’s unlikely to happen.
If I were the Jazz, I’d be
focusing less on this year and more on the bright future that lies ahead which
would lead me to do the following two things:
- Play the young guys: In Favors, Kanter, Heyward, Burks, and even Jeremy
Evans are great young prospects. Developing those players is obviously
paramount to the Jazz’ future success. To continue making progress, those young
players must play. This means less minutes for Mo, Marvin, Raja and other Jazz
veterans even if it jeopardizes the likelihood that they return to the playoffs
this year.
Evaluating the young players is also important considering the Jazz projected cap room this summer (~$35 million). If the Jazz use their cap room to effectively address their weakness, they could be potential contenders in the not-to-distant future. To address those problems, the Jazz need to know what the strengths of the current roster are – something they can’t properly evaluate unless they see their young players in extended game action. - Trade Jefferson and/or Millsap: These player's contracts expire after the year and there’s no chance that both of them are resigned, particularly since Derrick Favors is waiting in the wings. The Jazz would be best off trading at least one (if not both) of them for young talent and draft picks. Jefferson would probably be the best option to trade as he’s likely to command more money this year as a free agent and doesn’t pair as well with Favors. In addition to bringing back picks and young assets, a trade of either of these players would open up more.
Plain and simple, the Jazz don’t
have enough talent to compete this year. Management is kidding themselves if
they believe they do, as some of their offseason moves seem to indicate. If
their promising young players pan out and the Jazz play their cards right
- trading Al Jefferson for young talent,
sign a max free agent wing (James Harden would look awfully good in a Jazz uniform)
and re-signing Paul Millsap – they could be contenders in the near future.
Best
Case Scenario: The Jazz are able to trade Al Jefferson for an
attractive package of young assets and draft picks. The young core shows
promise giving the Jazz hope for the future and maximizing Utah’s “appeal” for
free agents. However, they still make the playoffs as the 8-seed, mostly based on the amazing play of Favors, whose growth as a basketball player astounds the league in just his third season. Kanter, Burks and Hayward fill in as able role players at the least, but showing flashes of All-Star talent at their best.
Absolute Apocalypse: The Jazz get off to a better than expected start, convince themselves that they are contenders and trade some of their young assets like Enes Kanter, in the vein of their Mo and Marvin Williams trades. The team gets stuck in the worst type of no man's land - it's bad enough to be an 8-seed, but even worse so when that's your ceiling.
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Whoever wrote this doesn't know jack about the Jazz or follow them at all, the Jazz and Raja Bell have stated since last spring that he has not future with the team and were working on a buyout all summer. The Jazz told him to stay away from training camp. Did you even bother to do research before you wrote this?
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