Friday, November 9, 2012

Week Ten NFL Picks

Last week the only one happier than me was the landlord. It only took 9 weeks (well 8 with my personal bye week), but I experienced my first winning season of the season. Since the bye week, I haven’t lost. And dating back to the .500 record of Week 7, I haven’t seen a loss since the presidential candidates were debating. It’s time to start the expert comparisons.

Last week’s 9-4 record only puts a small dent in the overall record that now stands at 37-51, but with a couple more half-full weeks we’re in business. One of those weeks is coming this week.

NY Giants (-4) over CINCINATTI: Everyone insists that the Giants are ready for a “November swoon.” I don’t believe in that sort of thing. They lost to a good Pittsburgh team in a week in which there was a tiny weather distraction. Eli will pick his brother’s brain after the Broncos just beat the Bengals last week.

Tennessee (+6) over MIAMI:  The Titans have had five losses of more than 20 points this season, so when they lose, it is pretty clear that they aren’t trying to at least cover. They have also had back-to-back games of losing by more than 20 twice this season. Sunday will be an opportunity for a third time, but there’s got to be some sort of pride on the line that helps them avoid such a fate. That and the Dolphins offense shouldn’t be able to blow them away.

MINNESOTA (+1) over Detroit: Detroit has won two in a row while the Vikings have lost two in a row. Then again, the Vikes are at home and getting the point. Can’t pick against that.

NEW ENGLAND (-11) over Buffalo: Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable, but in New England that can’t really mean much. In the Patriots last game against St. Louis two weeks ago, Gronk never had to leave the game and the numbers support the fact that he is fine. The Patriots are coming off of a bye, playing a team they already beat by 24 just six weeks ago, and face them at home this time.

NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) over Hotlanta: As John Sterling oncesaid, in life all good things come to an end. The Falcons are going to need Sterling’s wisdom after Sunday because the Saints are rounding into form without their coach and with the bounty scandal mostly behind them. Lock of the week right here. I’m going to count this game twice (I’ve got some ground to make up, ok?).

TAMPA (-3) over Saint Diego: The Whale’s Vaginas defense is in the top seven in yards and points allowed in the game. The offense though is 29th in yards. Tampa is 6-2 against the spread this year and hasn’t won a game by less than 10 since Week One. I also fancy the name muscle hamster.

Denver (-4) over CAROLINA: I know Carolina is at home. And I know they won last week. But come on? Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning again. The Broncos might run the table this season and have a shot at being the number one seed in the AFC. There is just no way they don’t light up a 2-6 team.

Oakland (+7.5) over BALTIMORE: Too many points. The Ravens have lost five of six against the spread and have played close games against the likes of Kansas City, Cleveland, and Philly (they aren’t good people).

NY Jets (+6.5) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks are 4-0 at home and more importantly 4-0 against the spread at home. Even after knowing that though 6.5 just seems like too many. The Jets have more to lose in this game and will give it a hard fight before losing.

Dallas (-1) over PHILADELPHIA: Watching Monday Night Football was painful for me, and I have no allegiance to the Eagles at all. Their offensive line had less awareness than the captain of the Titanic. 

SAN FRANCISCO (-11) over St. Louis: Is 11 points too many? Three of the 49ers last four wins have been by more than 20 points, so they know how to blow teams out. The Rams have just faced New England and Green Bay, and lost by double digits in both contests. The 49ers are on a level with the Patriots and Packers, so I’d say the 49ers will win by at least 7 and by up to 24 points. It’s more than likely that they cover this one.

CHICAGO (-1) over Houston: The Bears are at home. That’s really the only thing to note about this game and spread. Out of everything on the schedule this week, this is the game to have the least amount of confidence about, but you have to pick a team. It’s two really good teams and also the only game on at this particular time.

PITTSBURGH (-11.5) over Kansas City: The Chiefs have the second lowest total points in the NFL. They are 28th in the NFL in points against. They are 2-6 against the spread. The Steelers meanwhile have won three in a row against the spread and Ben Roethlisberger is healthy for a change. 

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