The end of Shaquille's career came much faster and sooner than I expected it. Not because I didn't see the signs coming - the guy only played half the 2011 season and had been battling injuries for years. I had heard so often that this man was the oldest player in the league. But how could the biggest personality in the league be its oldest? Maybe I didn't believe it because his still gregarious demeanor belied everything I saw in his declining game. His interviews had not waned from the time when his nightly 30 point, 12 rebound human blitzkrieg seemed like nothing more than a precursor to his plug for the new Shaq-Fu video game. Usually legends fade quietly into the background. It is like their slow decline in skill serve as a ballast of humility for their bravado and ego that once, and perhaps rightly, floated so high above everyone's head. Most times, the swagger fades in concert with the vertical leap - so no matter who you are, I suppose that age is the greatest equalizer of them all. But Shaquille, even on his last day as a professional basketball player, still loomed larger and more important in the sport than that night's game between the last remaining 30 men of the 2011 season.
To get a little perspective on the Diesel leaving the league, let's look at his accomplishments. He went to 6 NBA Finals, 15 NBA All-Star games and was named 1st Team All-NBA 8 times. He unjustly won the regular season MVP only once, but won the Finals MVP thrice - three Finals MVPs out of his 4 championships. He finishes his career with averages of 23.7 points per game, 10.9 rebounds per game, 2.7 blocks per game, all while shooting 58%. He ranks 17th in NBA history in minutes played, 12th in rebounds, 7th in blocks and 5th in points. He is a surefire Hall of Famer, and one of the 15 greatest players EVER. But maybe even more impressive than his resume could be the teammates he played with.
Out of all of his teammates he played with, 2 are already a Hall of Famers (Karl Malone and Dennis Rodman, a forgotten member of the '99 Lakers), and 9 will be at some point in the future. The list (in chronological order) is Kobe Bryant, Dennis Rodman, Gary Payton, Karl Malone, Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash, Grant Hill, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Those guys are almost all unmistakable Hall of Famers (Hill for his contributions both in college and in the pros), and that's not counting teammates Alonzo Mourning, Rajon Rondo and Amar'e Stoudemire and Hall of Fame coaches Phil Jackson, Tex Winter and Pat Riley. That's 11 Hall of Fame teammates, with potentially 3 more, and 3 Hall of Fame coaches. Only one other guy played with a similar amount of talent - 11 Hall of Famers in Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Tommy Heinsohn, Bailey Howell, Ed McCauley, KC Jones, Sam Jones, Frank Ramsey, Clyde Lovellette, Andy Phillip and Arnie Risen. This man is Bill Russell. Great stat.
What is so amazing is that even with the enormity of all these accomplishments, when I think of him, I remember how entertaining he was. Will you remember his place on the all-time scoring list - or "Can you dig it?". Will you remember how him and Kobe were the two best players in the league on the same team - or will you remember everything else about their off-court relationship. Incredibly, I think it's the latter; Shaquille bouncing out of a limo with super-soakers to an adoring Miami crowd in July, 2004, or doing a 2009 All-Star intro dance with the Jabowockeez. It would take a presence of something massive to overshadow the accomplishments of a career like Shaquille's - and in saying that, it's not at all surprising that we'll most remember him more for being the most enduring personality in the history of the NBA.
Monday, June 6, 2011
If I were GM of...the Memphis Grizzlies
Even with their 2010-2011 season coming to a halt as an 8-seed in the second round of the playoffs, I still am not positive that the Memphis Grizzlies are the team they appear to be. Zach Randolph looked like the best forward in the league for a month, Pau's brother almost was good enough for me to learn his first name and Mike Conley seemingly tried to throw it in every critics face every night. They dismantled the number one seed San Antonio Spurs and took the Thunder to a game 7. But this team only won 46 games in the regular season - record-wise, they weren't much better than the Orlando Magic or Atlanta Hawks. Was their run because their players got hot at the right time, like what happens in MLB playoffs? Or was it because the Spurs and Thunder weren't prepared for all the trouble an 8-seed could give them? I'm still not sure how good they were.
But going forward, you have to ride the wave of positivity and hope that what we saw over the past month wasn't a fluke or a hot streak - we have to assume that this is who the Grizzlies really are.
Zach Randolph:
Rudy Gay: 15 million
Mike Conley: 6.5 million
OJ Mayo: 5.6 million
Tony Allen: 3.1 million
Xavier Henry: 2.17 million
Hamed Haddadi: 2 million (qualifying offer)
Darrell Arthur: 2 million
Greivis Vasquez: 1.11 million
Sam Young: 947,800 (team option)
Ishamel Smith: 788,872
_____________________
Total: 50 million
Expiring:
Marko Jaric (seriously): 6.5 million
Shane Battier: 7.3 million
Pau's brother: 3.48 million
A bunch of deadbeats: 1 million
_____________________________
Total: 18.3 million
The Grizzlies' first priority would have been extending Z-Bo, but oddly enough, they might have already done that. At 4-years and 70 million, I am shocked to write that that might have even been at a small discount for Memphis. After way he played in the playoffs, he could have gotten 5 years, 100 million. Crazytown.
1). Sign Pau's brother on your terms rather than allow another team to sign him to an offer sheet
Well, one good thing had to happen to a Gasol family member this summer. Pau's brother is going to get PAID whenever the free agency period begins, and paid big. Somehow, Pau's brother went from a throw-in in a monster trade to one of the key pieces to a team that nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals.
(By the way, I'm not sure how Pau's brother got so completely overlooked in the Pau Gasol to the Lakers deal. If you have a guy like Pau - former all-star, extremely skilled, high basketball IQ - wouldn't you think that his brother would be pretty good? Another guy with the same GENETIC MAKEUP, except with 40 more pounds? How did we not see this coming? Either Chris Wallace is much smarter than we all knew, or he's just extremely lucky. I'd side with the latter. See no. 5 please)
His career averages lie at 12.7 ppg, 7.8 rebounds, 71.5% FT, 54.5 FG%, 1.4 bpg, 2.2 apg. He's 26 years old. He's in just his third professional season and he's durable. Someone is going to offer him 5 years, 55 million - or more. Memphis, I'd throw that money at this man, before someone signs him to an offer sheet and makes that contract more expensive for you.
2). Get someone that can make a long range jumper
The Grizz have to get a guy that can reliably make a 3 point shot. A team that is cannot spread the floor usually won't find success of any type, but I suppose that's just a testament to how good Randolph was during this playoff run - no one could effectively slow him down inside, so the need for spacing didn't seem as great. However, I just don't think that type of adrenaline-fueled play can be counted on over 82 games.
Jamal Crawford, Jason Richardson and JR Smith are the cream of the crop in regards to shooting guards this summer. I'm not sure that type of investment is going to be in the cards for the Grizz, especially considering that they only have 7 million in cap space. Leandro Barbosa, Peja Stojakovic and Mike Dunleavy are all more feasible options, while not the best. The Grizz do have a nice little chest of assets they could use to trade for a shooter - Darrell Arthur, Xavier Henry, Sam Young, Greivis Vasquez, Hamed Haddaddi - to bolster the team in case an investment in Barbosa, Peja or Dunleavy doesn't work out.
Another option is to extend Shane Battier. I get the feeling he likes playing in Memphis and especially likes being the elder statesman around a lot of these young players. If he'd take something like the mid-level for 3 years, his shooting combined with his veteran leadership would be worth the price of that contract.
3). Don't trade OJ Mayo - you idiots
Don't trade him. He is 23. His first two years in the league he averaged 18 points and played 82 games both times. He's a career 38% shooter from the arc. He's got a ridiculous pedigree and is skilled on nearly every front. He was your number 3 pick. You traded Kevin Love for this man.
He is going to be a very good player. Please don't trade him for something like Josh McRoberts and an old Reggie Miller jersey. Be smart. Keep him around. Give him a summer to work on skills, get his head right and blossom into the player he will be. Don't be ridiculous Memphis.
4). Extend Sam Young
I like Sam Young. Like his name, he's largely non-descript. But he does everything pretty well and nothing terribly. For a guy like that, I'd throw 3 years, $12 million at him - pretty much a good bench player's type of money. But that's what he should be. A bench player. I'm looking for OJ Mayo to reclaim this role during training camp.
5). Sign a veteran PG for the minimum
Towards the end of last year, the Grizz had Greivis Vasquez running the point. I don't really have a problem with this - yes, at times he made some bonehead plays with the ball, but it was the playoffs and he was a rookie. I'll cut him a little slack for that one.
Seeing as the Grizz do NOT have a first rounder (courtesy of this trade, where they had to give up a FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK in order to unload their former number 2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet. That is ridiculous. Not only could the Grizz have Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, James Harden, Tyler Hansbrough or DeMar Derozan instead of Thabeet, but they also used him to trade for Shane Battier. Yes, GM Chris Wallace traded two first round picks for Shane Battier. And this is after a trade involving a OJ Mayo for Josh McRoberts fell through in February. Absolutely mind-blowing. It's like you can't write more than 5 paragraphs after complimenting Chris Wallace without criticizing him)
The Grizz can use OJ and Greivis at the point position for short spells and expect them to make the right decisions with the ball when Conley is off the court. But as a backup, Carlos Arroyo, Earl Boykins or Sebastian Telfair could be options with a bit of upside.
This team really found its groove towards the end of the season by being a nearly strictly inside-offense team that stayed true to their defensive principles and rotations. I don't think that the Grizz is far off from even contending for a title - yeah, I said it - but the team I'm referring to is the team that played in 13 tough playoff games, not the mediocre team that was barely over .500 during the season. I need to be able to watch them for 82 games to make a judgment of how close they are. In the meantime, the Grizz HAVE to find some shooters to make their offense and inside-outside game. A returning Rudy Gay and perhaps a re-signed Shane Battier would help, but they really do need a dead-eye marksmen to keep the opposing defenses honest.
But going forward, you have to ride the wave of positivity and hope that what we saw over the past month wasn't a fluke or a hot streak - we have to assume that this is who the Grizzlies really are.
Zach Randolph:
Rudy Gay: 15 million
Mike Conley: 6.5 million
OJ Mayo: 5.6 million
Tony Allen: 3.1 million
Xavier Henry: 2.17 million
Hamed Haddadi: 2 million (qualifying offer)
Darrell Arthur: 2 million
Greivis Vasquez: 1.11 million
Sam Young: 947,800 (team option)
Ishamel Smith: 788,872
_____________________
Total: 50 million
Expiring:
Marko Jaric (seriously): 6.5 million
Shane Battier: 7.3 million
Pau's brother: 3.48 million
A bunch of deadbeats: 1 million
_____________________________
Total: 18.3 million
The Grizzlies' first priority would have been extending Z-Bo, but oddly enough, they might have already done that. At 4-years and 70 million, I am shocked to write that that might have even been at a small discount for Memphis. After way he played in the playoffs, he could have gotten 5 years, 100 million. Crazytown.
1). Sign Pau's brother on your terms rather than allow another team to sign him to an offer sheet
Well, one good thing had to happen to a Gasol family member this summer. Pau's brother is going to get PAID whenever the free agency period begins, and paid big. Somehow, Pau's brother went from a throw-in in a monster trade to one of the key pieces to a team that nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals.
(By the way, I'm not sure how Pau's brother got so completely overlooked in the Pau Gasol to the Lakers deal. If you have a guy like Pau - former all-star, extremely skilled, high basketball IQ - wouldn't you think that his brother would be pretty good? Another guy with the same GENETIC MAKEUP, except with 40 more pounds? How did we not see this coming? Either Chris Wallace is much smarter than we all knew, or he's just extremely lucky. I'd side with the latter. See no. 5 please)
His career averages lie at 12.7 ppg, 7.8 rebounds, 71.5% FT, 54.5 FG%, 1.4 bpg, 2.2 apg. He's 26 years old. He's in just his third professional season and he's durable. Someone is going to offer him 5 years, 55 million - or more. Memphis, I'd throw that money at this man, before someone signs him to an offer sheet and makes that contract more expensive for you.
2). Get someone that can make a long range jumper
The Grizz have to get a guy that can reliably make a 3 point shot. A team that is cannot spread the floor usually won't find success of any type, but I suppose that's just a testament to how good Randolph was during this playoff run - no one could effectively slow him down inside, so the need for spacing didn't seem as great. However, I just don't think that type of adrenaline-fueled play can be counted on over 82 games.
Jamal Crawford, Jason Richardson and JR Smith are the cream of the crop in regards to shooting guards this summer. I'm not sure that type of investment is going to be in the cards for the Grizz, especially considering that they only have 7 million in cap space. Leandro Barbosa, Peja Stojakovic and Mike Dunleavy are all more feasible options, while not the best. The Grizz do have a nice little chest of assets they could use to trade for a shooter - Darrell Arthur, Xavier Henry, Sam Young, Greivis Vasquez, Hamed Haddaddi - to bolster the team in case an investment in Barbosa, Peja or Dunleavy doesn't work out.
Another option is to extend Shane Battier. I get the feeling he likes playing in Memphis and especially likes being the elder statesman around a lot of these young players. If he'd take something like the mid-level for 3 years, his shooting combined with his veteran leadership would be worth the price of that contract.
3). Don't trade OJ Mayo - you idiots
Don't trade him. He is 23. His first two years in the league he averaged 18 points and played 82 games both times. He's a career 38% shooter from the arc. He's got a ridiculous pedigree and is skilled on nearly every front. He was your number 3 pick. You traded Kevin Love for this man.
He is going to be a very good player. Please don't trade him for something like Josh McRoberts and an old Reggie Miller jersey. Be smart. Keep him around. Give him a summer to work on skills, get his head right and blossom into the player he will be. Don't be ridiculous Memphis.
4). Extend Sam Young
I like Sam Young. Like his name, he's largely non-descript. But he does everything pretty well and nothing terribly. For a guy like that, I'd throw 3 years, $12 million at him - pretty much a good bench player's type of money. But that's what he should be. A bench player. I'm looking for OJ Mayo to reclaim this role during training camp.
5). Sign a veteran PG for the minimum
Towards the end of last year, the Grizz had Greivis Vasquez running the point. I don't really have a problem with this - yes, at times he made some bonehead plays with the ball, but it was the playoffs and he was a rookie. I'll cut him a little slack for that one.
Seeing as the Grizz do NOT have a first rounder (courtesy of this trade, where they had to give up a FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK in order to unload their former number 2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet. That is ridiculous. Not only could the Grizz have Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, James Harden, Tyler Hansbrough or DeMar Derozan instead of Thabeet, but they also used him to trade for Shane Battier. Yes, GM Chris Wallace traded two first round picks for Shane Battier. And this is after a trade involving a OJ Mayo for Josh McRoberts fell through in February. Absolutely mind-blowing. It's like you can't write more than 5 paragraphs after complimenting Chris Wallace without criticizing him)
The Grizz can use OJ and Greivis at the point position for short spells and expect them to make the right decisions with the ball when Conley is off the court. But as a backup, Carlos Arroyo, Earl Boykins or Sebastian Telfair could be options with a bit of upside.
This team really found its groove towards the end of the season by being a nearly strictly inside-offense team that stayed true to their defensive principles and rotations. I don't think that the Grizz is far off from even contending for a title - yeah, I said it - but the team I'm referring to is the team that played in 13 tough playoff games, not the mediocre team that was barely over .500 during the season. I need to be able to watch them for 82 games to make a judgment of how close they are. In the meantime, the Grizz HAVE to find some shooters to make their offense and inside-outside game. A returning Rudy Gay and perhaps a re-signed Shane Battier would help, but they really do need a dead-eye marksmen to keep the opposing defenses honest.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
See you around, Wheelchair
Let's pretend I have an old piece of crap car and I want to fix it up real nice. Because my collar isn't blue enough to do it myself, I hire people to do it for me. But I buy the parts and do the best I can as the brains of the operation. Maybe not all parts fit with my pet project, and maybe the first couple test runs don't go so well. At the end of the year, there's a big race I wanna enter with the local hoodlums around my block.
Come race time, I pull my car up against the likes of The Blur (bonus points if you feel me on that one). But The Blur "sweeps" the floor with me and my team.
My car rolls up and I take a couple minutes to analyze the situation. Sure, we didn't win this year, but maybe, just mayyyybe...with some extra luck, we can impress the field next year. My crew is downtrodden yet somehow optimistic. My driver, in particular, did a hell of a job, considering the unenviable task of running my once-sunk ship.
So I fire him.
Ok, not a perfect analogy, but hopefully you get the hint. Donnie Walsh is no longer the General Manager of YOUR New York Knickerbockers after a quite stellar 3 years at the helm. And as much as I throw jabs at Wheelchair, he put STAT and Melo in the Garden, front and center. Not quite LBJ and D-Wade, but hey, at least the Bocks are bar conversation-worthy again.
I wasn't overly upset with being eliminated from the playoffs, even in such embarrassing fashion, because NYC was playing with house money. I was legit stoked to see what Wheelchair would do at this month's Draft and for the next couple of years. But Jimmy D decided that just the Draft was good enough, as Walsh's contract will expire without renewal at month's end.
I could go on and on about why this is not the right move, but it's a Saturday afternoon as I write this, and I won't whore this post out til Monday morning, when you idiots need something to read to pass the time at your job. By then, our "now" obsessed culture will have moved on to bigger and better things. (Hardly. But whatever.) I'm certainly sad, but not even this can shake my hopes and dreams for next season.
Unless of course, this guy comes back. Measure your neck size and get your noose ready, just in case.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Remembering Shaq
Remember how Wedding Crashers went from a hilarious movie full of one-liners to a romantic comedy? Or when How I Met Your Mother went from bro-tastic to sappy storylines about people dying and people having kids? Even though those two things got weird on me, I continued to watch. It wasn't the same kind of entertainment, but it still had value.
Shaquille O'Neal's NBA career went through stages:
-the unbelievably imposing genetic freak, ferocious but unpolished
-the slightly more refined genetic freak, smarter and more Hollywood
-the vengeful yet more cunning veteran
-the lazy veteran who could only play one-half of back-to-backs
-LeBron's Uncle
-the jolly bouncer on the Celtic bench
Yet no matter what, Shaq always retained his entertainment value. As a young fan, he scared the living daylights out of me. The guy smirked at Patrick Ewing like he was staring at prey. These days, he still scares the living daylights out of me, but only when he attempts to partake in that activity we healthy people call "walking." But bottom line: Shaq was a superstar personality that even the most sports-deprived girl still knew about...before reality TV and the social media explosion.
As for his NBA legacy, every Shaq tribute you'll read will contain the word "dominant." He was scarier than Dwight. It's not even close. Put it this way, you won't see Penny or Kobe telling Mike and Mike that their former teammate isn't as good as his current version. Dwight never brought down two BACKBOARDS...but I guess he had an excuse. In the '90s, the NBA reinforced all hoops with extra support because some dude decided to break them. That guy was Shaq. Seriously, he brought down the entire basket. Twice. Years went by, and he started getting old. And fat. His suits became his jersey. Then he left.
My favorite Shaq moment didn't involve anything related to the NBA. When I was a kid, I found out that Shaq was visiting sick kids at a hospital near my hometown. My doctor-mother gave me the VIP treatment, and I met the guy. I was legitimately scared at the sight of size 20-something feet, and that's before I knew what big feet translated into. Anyway, Shaq stayed there for hours. I tried to stay as long as he did, but I got hungry. Shaq stayed. Cool dude.
Shaquille O'Neal's NBA career went through stages:
-the unbelievably imposing genetic freak, ferocious but unpolished
-the slightly more refined genetic freak, smarter and more Hollywood
-the vengeful yet more cunning veteran
-the lazy veteran who could only play one-half of back-to-backs
-LeBron's Uncle
-the jolly bouncer on the Celtic bench
Yet no matter what, Shaq always retained his entertainment value. As a young fan, he scared the living daylights out of me. The guy smirked at Patrick Ewing like he was staring at prey. These days, he still scares the living daylights out of me, but only when he attempts to partake in that activity we healthy people call "walking." But bottom line: Shaq was a superstar personality that even the most sports-deprived girl still knew about...before reality TV and the social media explosion.
As for his NBA legacy, every Shaq tribute you'll read will contain the word "dominant." He was scarier than Dwight. It's not even close. Put it this way, you won't see Penny or Kobe telling Mike and Mike that their former teammate isn't as good as his current version. Dwight never brought down two BACKBOARDS...but I guess he had an excuse. In the '90s, the NBA reinforced all hoops with extra support because some dude decided to break them. That guy was Shaq. Seriously, he brought down the entire basket. Twice. Years went by, and he started getting old. And fat. His suits became his jersey. Then he left.
My favorite Shaq moment didn't involve anything related to the NBA. When I was a kid, I found out that Shaq was visiting sick kids at a hospital near my hometown. My doctor-mother gave me the VIP treatment, and I met the guy. I was legitimately scared at the sight of size 20-something feet, and that's before I knew what big feet translated into. Anyway, Shaq stayed there for hours. I tried to stay as long as he did, but I got hungry. Shaq stayed. Cool dude.
The previous paragraph is where this post went Wedding Crashers on you. So I'll stop.
NBA Finals Prediction
Yes, I am aware that Game 1 was played last night, but in my defense, I had these opinions last week and I pulled this same type of BS before the Conference Finals, so if you're still reading, it's on you now. Or we are related, so you have to keep on reading. Either way.
I'm not going to delve into the consequences of us living in a world where LeBron wins a title and universal karma is rendered into a joke, nor what another loss to the Heat will do to the collective (and already damanged) minds of Dallas basketball fans. I'm just going to stick to the analysis of the two teams (for now) and make my prediction.
When I look at this Heat team and I examine how they beat the Bulls, I see three reasons:
1) Stifling defense: LeBron has awakened his inner Mamba and is channeling Redeem Team Summer '08 Kobe. He is an absolute wolverine on the defensive end, sparing no man, woman or Deng and destroying every person in his path. During the end of games in the Bulls series, it felt like Rose was trying to take LeBron one-on-one in the last couple minutes. It only felt that way because LeBron was playing such efficient suffocating defense that Rose couldn't get a passing lane to do anything but take a ridiculously contested shot.
This is not to preclude the rest of the Heat defenders - Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and of course Dywane Wade are holding up their ends of the bargain as well. LeBron is playing great one-on-one perimeter D, but every other member of the Heat is staying incredibly disciplined on their man and controlling the passing lanes to perfection. It seems so strangely appropriate to say, but if I didn't hate this team so much, I'd love them.
2) Too many weapons: Having to deal with LeBron at the end of games is enough. Having to deal with Dywane Wade at the end of games is also enough. But to have to deal with both of them and ALSO still be conscious of Bosh finishing around the rim is just too much. The looked much maligned at the end of games during the regular season, but during these playoffs, they have ZERO fear in their eyes in crunch time.
3) They just had to beat one guy: Derrick Rose was the engine that made the Bulls go. No one else on the team was even close to being a Pau Gasol-level sidekick. Rose scored 30 points a night, set-up everyone else's shot with either his passing or penetration and got to the rim anytime he needed to break up momentum. The Heat knew this and did exactly what they needed to - they kept him from setting up his other guys (by denying his penetration and passing lanes) and making him beat them by himself.
Now I ask you - what is going to be different about this series with the Mavericks? The Heat have to beat just one guy in Dirk. The Heat still have too many weapons for the Mavs to deal with and the defense is of course still there.
The main problem I see is that the Mavs rely on aggressive ball movement, spacing and excellent three point shooting and all of their role-players doing whatever they do to perfection. The Heat just beat a very similar team that had the very same game plan in the Chicago Bulls - one very good player and then a bunch of specialists (a problem made even more apparent with Bosh's surreal emasculization of Carlos Boozer). I just don't see how the Mavs can overcome the same traps that the Bulls just fell face-first into. Their role-players are more plentiful and better shooters than the Bulls, but the Heat just beat Chicago in 5 games. Is the value of the Mavs role players 3 victories better than the value of the role players on the Bulls? I think that question is very contingent on how well the Mavs shoot the 3-ball, which is not something you want to be relying on in the NBA Finals.
Not that I should be writing about Game 1 in a Finals prediction post, but that happened in the last 3 minutes last night. Dirk had to try to win it by himself because everyone else was left to their own devices without that great ball movement of theirs. Did you feel like the ball was just stopped during those last 3 minutes? And that every possession seemed like it was in slow motion culminating in yet another bad shot? I felt like I was watching a replay of the Bulls last week, except substitute a kid from Chicago with a 7-foot German and a bunch of shooters with slightly better shooters that still didn't make any baskets. I will lay off the jokes here. I don't want the government taking away my blog.
To the Maverick's credit, they beat 3 great Western Conference offensive squads. They demolished a apathetic, but undeniably great Lakers offense and made the Thunder look like an AAU team, scrambling in the last 3 minutes of every game. Dirk has been an more unbelievable offensive talent this playoffs than even Derrick Rose was, and with his skill set and size, is a more difficult cover. The Mavericks have much better perimeter shooting, and with Marion, Haywood and Chandler, have better size to throw at the Heat. Their guards are craftier and more multi-dimensional in Barea, Terry, Stevenson and Kidd, rather than Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver. But again, are all these small advantages enough to create a 3 victory disparity between the Bulls and the Mavs?
I don't think it is. God help us all. We're about to live in a world where LeBron James is a champion. Goodbye Justice.
HEAT in 6
I'm not going to delve into the consequences of us living in a world where LeBron wins a title and universal karma is rendered into a joke, nor what another loss to the Heat will do to the collective (and already damanged) minds of Dallas basketball fans. I'm just going to stick to the analysis of the two teams (for now) and make my prediction.
When I look at this Heat team and I examine how they beat the Bulls, I see three reasons:
1) Stifling defense: LeBron has awakened his inner Mamba and is channeling Redeem Team Summer '08 Kobe. He is an absolute wolverine on the defensive end, sparing no man, woman or Deng and destroying every person in his path. During the end of games in the Bulls series, it felt like Rose was trying to take LeBron one-on-one in the last couple minutes. It only felt that way because LeBron was playing such efficient suffocating defense that Rose couldn't get a passing lane to do anything but take a ridiculously contested shot.
This is not to preclude the rest of the Heat defenders - Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and of course Dywane Wade are holding up their ends of the bargain as well. LeBron is playing great one-on-one perimeter D, but every other member of the Heat is staying incredibly disciplined on their man and controlling the passing lanes to perfection. It seems so strangely appropriate to say, but if I didn't hate this team so much, I'd love them.
2) Too many weapons: Having to deal with LeBron at the end of games is enough. Having to deal with Dywane Wade at the end of games is also enough. But to have to deal with both of them and ALSO still be conscious of Bosh finishing around the rim is just too much. The looked much maligned at the end of games during the regular season, but during these playoffs, they have ZERO fear in their eyes in crunch time.
3) They just had to beat one guy: Derrick Rose was the engine that made the Bulls go. No one else on the team was even close to being a Pau Gasol-level sidekick. Rose scored 30 points a night, set-up everyone else's shot with either his passing or penetration and got to the rim anytime he needed to break up momentum. The Heat knew this and did exactly what they needed to - they kept him from setting up his other guys (by denying his penetration and passing lanes) and making him beat them by himself.
Now I ask you - what is going to be different about this series with the Mavericks? The Heat have to beat just one guy in Dirk. The Heat still have too many weapons for the Mavs to deal with and the defense is of course still there.
The main problem I see is that the Mavs rely on aggressive ball movement, spacing and excellent three point shooting and all of their role-players doing whatever they do to perfection. The Heat just beat a very similar team that had the very same game plan in the Chicago Bulls - one very good player and then a bunch of specialists (a problem made even more apparent with Bosh's surreal emasculization of Carlos Boozer). I just don't see how the Mavs can overcome the same traps that the Bulls just fell face-first into. Their role-players are more plentiful and better shooters than the Bulls, but the Heat just beat Chicago in 5 games. Is the value of the Mavs role players 3 victories better than the value of the role players on the Bulls? I think that question is very contingent on how well the Mavs shoot the 3-ball, which is not something you want to be relying on in the NBA Finals.
Not that I should be writing about Game 1 in a Finals prediction post, but that happened in the last 3 minutes last night. Dirk had to try to win it by himself because everyone else was left to their own devices without that great ball movement of theirs. Did you feel like the ball was just stopped during those last 3 minutes? And that every possession seemed like it was in slow motion culminating in yet another bad shot? I felt like I was watching a replay of the Bulls last week, except substitute a kid from Chicago with a 7-foot German and a bunch of shooters with slightly better shooters that still didn't make any baskets. I will lay off the jokes here. I don't want the government taking away my blog.
To the Maverick's credit, they beat 3 great Western Conference offensive squads. They demolished a apathetic, but undeniably great Lakers offense and made the Thunder look like an AAU team, scrambling in the last 3 minutes of every game. Dirk has been an more unbelievable offensive talent this playoffs than even Derrick Rose was, and with his skill set and size, is a more difficult cover. The Mavericks have much better perimeter shooting, and with Marion, Haywood and Chandler, have better size to throw at the Heat. Their guards are craftier and more multi-dimensional in Barea, Terry, Stevenson and Kidd, rather than Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver. But again, are all these small advantages enough to create a 3 victory disparity between the Bulls and the Mavs?
I don't think it is. God help us all. We're about to live in a world where LeBron James is a champion. Goodbye Justice.
HEAT in 6
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