Is Chip Kelly a Good Fit For the Philadelphia Eagles?

(In a shocker, Oregon Ducks football coach Chip Kelly became ex-Oregon Ducks football coach this afternoon, as he signed a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. Kelly had been courted by several NFL teams, but seemed to be going back to Eugene after some sources reported he had signed with the Cleveland Browns just two weeks ago. Our man and foolish Eagles faithful El Mariachi had no choice but to comment on his potentially history-making day)

It is common knowledge that the Philadelphia fan base is a notoriously tough crowd when it comes to sports. But when you look past all the bad press that they get you can see deep down in the cavities of their chests that there is a tiny, Kelly-green Grinch- heart three sizes too small. They are arguably the most passionate fan base in all of sports and they are usually the most critical. Which made the 2012 season all the more painful.

To say the least, it was a sad year. Beginning with the tragic death of Andy Reid’s son, the culmination of a 4-12 season, and the inevitable firing of Reid, ending a twelve year long witch hunt. Add everything up, and this made the Eagles one of the unprecedented seven teams that needed a head coach entering the 2012 postseason.

After a grueling process of interviewing over 11 candidates, it was reported today that Oregon head coach Chip Kelly will be the new boss of the Philadelphia Eagles. Ask any fan and they’ll tell you that any change is for the better...but is it really?

Chip Kelly is best known for his high octane offensive style. His no huddle offense is reminiscent of the Patriots, Redskins, and the Colts during the Manning era. Almost always starting in shotgun, Kelly uses the spread offense with 3, 4 or even 5 receiver sets. In theory this spreads the defense dangerously thin which opens up not only the run game, but the read-option for the quarterbacks. This is best run by someone mobile like Cam Newton, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, or interestingly, a young Michael Vick. The Eagles might have Nick Foles running the show next year, which is a problem in itself. It's not that Foles isn't capable--it's that he's unproven with such a small sample size of games. Regardless of who's throwing the ball, this offensive is devastating when implemented correctly with the right personnel and it led Chip Kelly to an astounding 46-7 record in only a four year span at Oregon.

The problem with this style offense is that it’s not much different from Andy Reid’s pass first, chew bubble gum and take names second, West Coast offense. And with the current wide receiver core consisting of an over paid and underweight DeSean Jackson, solid but not great Jeremy Maclin, Jason “I-like-to-take-chunks-of-the-season-off” Avant, and cascadingly-haired Riley Cooper, the Eagles don’t have the big pass catching threat that would draw double coverage to help spread the defense. With the way this group plays, there is no reason to not run the bump and run defense with opposing team’s corners. And on top of that, they don’t have a competent quarterback in Michael Vick who finished 24^th in quarterbacks with a dismal 78.1 passer rating. A young Michael Vick would work well in this offense, but that time has clearly come and gone.

The Eagles are a young and talented group, but they lack the super star wide out such as Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, or Andre Johnson that could implement Kelly’s offense correctly. This is the NFL we are talking about, consisting of the best players in the world at every position. A team would need one of these star wide outs to demand attention and drastically change defensive play calling unlike how it is in college footbal. But what the Eagles do have is a super star running back in LeSean McCoy, who is the best player on the team and arguably one of the top running backs in the league the past several years. However, is he still an elite player? In 2012, he averaged only 23 touches per game, when backs like Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch averaged around 25-30 touches. In 2011, McCoy scored a mind blowing 20 touchdowns but this year he only scored 5--needless to say, something is clearly amiss here. Kelly’s system could work if he could modify it to exploit his stellar pass catching backs in the throwing game. Both McCoy and Bryce Brown, if used correctly, could be a devastating weapon for Kelly.

Instead, theories are that Chip Kelly would essentially be running the same offense as Andy Reid, which doesn’t fix the problem and instead puts a fresh band-aid on it. The only way it could work for Kelly would be to upgrade at wide out and get that big target that would open the run game. Then he could use the inside outside scheming that worked so well in Oregon to keep defenses on their heels, not sure whether to defend the pass or the rush. The Eagles run into another problem there too, since they are in desperate need of a solid offensive and defensive line which will undoubtedly be built through the draft which leaves upgrading at wide receiver depending on trades or free agency. 

Chip Kelly has a tough road ahead of him. In college football, his offense is run by young players who don’t play against the best players in the world for 16 weeks straight. NFL players may not physically be able to handle the hurry up offense that he demands week in and week out. The Patriots and Redskins use it sparingly and when they do it is for drives, not entire games. Kelly will undoubtedly have issues with the personnel for his schemes; a mind-blowing sentiment because the Eagles are one of the most young and athletic teams in the league. Unless the Eagles front office can work out some sort of personnel change, especially at quarterback, by the close of the 2013 season they could be finding themselves in the same hole that they were in this year. 

But like I said, the Eagles are a young and very talented team. For all we know, the speedy but small receiving core could be used to devastating effect with Kelly’s style. This in turn could blow the run game wide open and see Shady McCoy return to NFL dominance. Who knows, Michael Vick could even shows signs of his former self in terms of explosive play making and maneuverability. We can only speculate as to what will happen. The problem is that the Eagles fans are more than anything, impatient. 

Hire Rating: B-

Feeling Big Blue

This season Sports Illustrated revamped it's NFL predictions from September with the foresight and knowledge of eight weeks of football already past and came up with new picks for the Super Bowl that were different, rational and not far off from what I would have pegged it at myself. The choice by SI's Jim Trotter, with the argument of "Whom do you trust late with the game on the line? Two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning or Matt Schaub, who has never started in the postseason?" was the New York Giants to win a second consecutive championship with a 24-20 victory over the Houston Texans in Super Bowl XLVII. At the time that I saw this after I got my issue in the mail I had one thought run through my head.

"Oh, I don't like this one bit."

I hesitate to say that I'm superstitious. After all, the idea that a few words printed on a page in a soon to be forgotten article in a weekly periodical don't actually have the power to unseat or upset anyone or anything. They're just words, meaningless as every game in college football's postseason with the notable exception of one. And yet fear still ran down my spine as I saw it, hypothetically jinxing everything I had known to be a true, reasonable interpretation of the season's first half. After all, the Giants had overcome an early season hiccup against Dallas and were 6-2 with a comfortable division lead at the season's mid-way point, their lone other loss being a frustrating, but forgiveable road defeat at Philadelphia which had not yet revealed itself to be utterly horrendous.

Otherwise, the Giants were off and running with an offense looking every bit as potent as one would have expected, a solid defense, championship experience in their back pockets and an absolute thrashing of a San Francisco team many expected to (and still expect to) compete for a Super Bowl title this February. All of this makes the fact that New York is already home for the summer more than a little baffling, and if you happen to call yourself a Giants fan (spoiler alert: I do), it's more than a little frustrating. I sat in my father's living room in New Jersey Sunday watching my team display in just about every facet why it has the potential to make a Super Bowl run any time it gets into the postseason and the entire time I kept watching Chicago stave off Detroit on my laptop and realized what the Giants did wouldn't mean a thing. This is maddening to some extent considering had the Giants done what was required of them in just one of any number of previous games this all would have been moot, but in the end, a rational man takes his gifts and hesitates to get greedy.

This offseason, I am going to pretend that that is me.

MAMBINO's Pro Bowl Selections

It happens when Mike Antoni is prompted to talk about defense. It happens when an Asian student has to explain a B+ to the parental droids. It happens when you have to explain a mischievous deed to a significant other.

Rambling run-on sentences.

When you don't know what you're talking about or when anything you say won't be believed, you may fall victim to over-talking and fail to use punctuation regarding tone and speed. I am certainly above such pedestrian nonsense, but rather than risk it, I present to you, the MAMBINO Pro Bowl rosters defined by best Youtube video.

Special thanks to my committee: Pucklius, who has staved off NHL Lockout-induced suicide for yet another day, and TuckRule, who is probably playing Madden to find a new NFL team to root for.

Week Ten NFL Picks

Last week the only one happier than me was the landlord. It only took 9 weeks (well 8 with my personal bye week), but I experienced my first winning season of the season. Since the bye week, I haven’t lost. And dating back to the .500 record of Week 7, I haven’t seen a loss since the presidential candidates were debating. It’s time to start the expert comparisons.

Last week’s 9-4 record only puts a small dent in the overall record that now stands at 37-51, but with a couple more half-full weeks we’re in business. One of those weeks is coming this week.

NFL Week 9 Picks

Well I took a week off to celebrate a .500 week in Week 7. The record now sits at 28-47. I still haven't had one winning week all season, but my six week losing streak is over. And now let's commence a winning streak.

(Editor's note: At this point, I'd just go ahead and do the opposite of what Mr. Marquez predicts. You've got a 3/5 chance that he's completely wrong)

CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Denver: I was thinking of taking Denver, but I took a page from Peyton and called an audible. The Bengals are at home, coming off the bye, and getting points.

Week 7 NFL Picks - Rexy Aint Too Sexy

Last week was close, but for the sixth consecutive week, I had a losing week. The 6-7 brings my season total to 22-41-2.

Enough with moping though. This is a huge week for a lot of teams starting in the AFC East. For all the hate surrounding the Jets offense (or lack thereof) they are one win from taking over first place today from the Patriots. Last week they looked more impressive than they have all season as Shonn Greene not only had his first 100-yard rushing game, but his first 160-yard rushing game of the season.

The Patriots meanwhile were winless in Seattle. Leading by 13 in the fourth quarter, they blew their lead against a rookie quarterback as Tom Brady looked very mortal against a strong defense. It was the second time this season that the Patriots have led by two scores in the fourth quarter (Week Three against the Ravens) and blown the game. Despite that killer instinct I'm not going to say that Brady and Belichick have lost it. On the contrary, the Patriots just haven't found it yet. This is the youngest team that Belichick has coached with New England, so while Brady is getting up there the rest of the team should get better.

If you had told me it would only be 10.5 two weeks ago, I'd be elated.

NFL Week 6 Picks - The Houston Astros Are Better Than Me?

For the fifth straight week, I picked more losers than winners. This has become academic. If you just look at how amateur my logic, knowledge, and acumen for gambling is, and spotted this at week one, you could have taken every pick I made and bet the farm on the opposite. Last week I was 5-8. For the season, my record is 16-34-2.

That means that if you bet every game at even money on the Houston Astros this year, you’d have more success than I’ve had picking NFL games this year. It also means that you would have had better luck picking the Sacramento Kings every night last season in the NBA.

It means that if you decided to bet just $5 per game in week one, and then double that amount in week two upon seeing that you lost, and then double that amount upon seeing that you lost in week three, and then double that amount upon seeing that you lost in week four, and that double that amount upon seeing that you list in week five that you would be down $585.

Or, if you prefer the glass half-full, you are just four more correct picks than wrong picks this week from being up $55 if you double the amount per game again this week.

That being said, it’s time to lay down $160 per game and get to work.

Week 5 NFL Picks - A Blind Squirrel Finds a Highway

Last week I went 5-9. It was the fourth straight week that I lost more games that I picked than I won. There have only been four weeks in the season. The record now stands at 11-26-2 on the year. If you are smart by now you know, do what I don’t not what I do. Anyway here is this week’s disaster:

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4) over Miami Dolphins: Bengals have won 3 in a row and are averaging 33 points a game since losing to Baltimore. The Dolphins haven’t been good since Dan Marino was kidnapped by Ray Finkle. This year is no excpetion.

Green Bay Packers (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: On a day where Tom and Peyton are playing again, Aaron Rodgers faces off against Andrew Luck. Rodgers kind of took the title of top quarterback from Brady last year while Luck took Peyton’s old job. Problem is Luck also took Peyton’s old teammates. The Packers haven’t had an easy game yet this year, but this is close to that. They should win by 10.

Week Four Picks: The Refs Are Back - Throw Out the Records

Last week we hit rock bottom. It was capped off by the inaccurate reception crushing my Green Bay pick and bringing the record on the week to 3-11-1.  Now for the season I’m at 6-17-2. This human torch will not be denied a bank loan though. Grampie got fired after making the picks and not having the wisdom to look into the degree to which the replacement officials were determining outcomes. This week the real officials are back. And so I am.

ATLANTA HAWKS (-7 ½) over Carolina Panthers: I was listening to Doug Gottlieb on CBS Radio earlier this week speak about how much has changed in the perceptions of Cam Newton versus Matt Ryan. Good point. Perhaps a better point though is how much the outlook on this whole division has been altered. The Falcons have looked like the best team in football while the Saints look to be heading toward the Matt Barkley sweepstakes (not saying Drew Brees is done – just saying Matt Barkley is going #1 regardless).

New England Patriots (-4.5) over BUFFALO Bills: The conventional wisdom is that the Patriots are going to be mean and angry, and that Bill Belichick will have the Patriots ready. The Pats haven’t loss three in a row since 2002. That said, the Bills have the type of team that can matchup with New England defensively. They can get to the quarterback and it won’t hurt that they are playing on the road. In the end though, I’m not sure if Buffalo can accomplish enough offensively. Both running backs are dinged up and New England has been pretty good at stopping running backs thus far in 2012.

NFL Week 3 Picks....with help from Grandpa. Really.

Last week I went 2-4-1, bringing the season total to 3-6-1. No worries though. I hate my top two locks last week (that should count as a bonus pick) and this week I got my grandfather to help me make the picks. I needed to pick more games though as a result of being in the hole. Some call it a horrible financial decision. I call it doubling down.

So I talked to my grandfather last night. He is a more cold-blooded gambler than anyone I have ever known. He will routinely bet against the home team with the home lines because he knows that they're are jacked up locally for people that pay to support the home team. At ninety years old, he’s still getting after it. Here’s the outlook.

Chicago Bears (-7 ½) over St. Louis Rams: The Bears are at home and Jay Cutler is the greatest villain in football right now. Gramps says the Rams are “too inconsistent” though, AND Steven Jackson is out.

NFL Week Two Picks: Look for Action Where There's No Action

Picking games in week one is like trying to predict what to say on a blind date. Basically the best case scenario is to get a second date. So regardless of last week's 1-2 start, the fact is that we found something to talk about.

The Jacksonville Jaguars. That was the one game that was correctly picked. The reason? A basic fundamental of all betting karma. The reason to bet on something is to generate higher interest (and depending on your lifestyle, as a means of income). Nobody was talking about Jaguars vs. Vikings. It was a game that the football gods were begging fans to bet on, so the few that did were rewarded. I'm back for a second date, and I'm only talking about awful games since that is what made the first date great. Therefore the following games are untouchable:

• Chicago Bears versus Green Bay Packers:. Despite the fact that it's the lock of the week since the Pack won't go 0-2 since this is at home (and since they already played the game and the Pack covered it), this game involves two contendahs as of week two. Stay away! By the way, from this point forward I'm betting against the Bears. Jay Cutler is as likable as Biff Tannen.
• New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers: Yes they are both 0-1, but that's what makes it interesting. Everyone was thinking they would be 1-0 coming into this game. Way too big of a story line.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at NY Giants: People are calling it a must win for the Giants. That's people do in New York, but it shows that people care. You can watch this game without any other incentives.
• Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles: Joe Flacco is looking like he's ready to take a leap up into the elite QBs while Mike Vick appears ready to take the fall down from the second tier into the average guys. I'll watch.
• Washington Redskins (+3) at St. Louis Rams: Trading the number two draft pick was a bad choice. This should be a fun game to feel awful for Rams fans. Unless you're a Rams fan. 
• NY Jets (-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: This gave us reason number 31 as to why the preseason is worthless. The possibility of the Jets beating a good team this week to get to 2-0 gives us a reason to watch the game. I like the idea of Rex Ryan getting his confidence built up so that it will eventually break down.
• Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Seattle Seahawks: Tony Romo has to implode. It's what he does. Based on my interest level though, this game screams stay away. 
• Detroit Lions (-7) at San Francisco 49ers: As if having the only game on the tube isn't enough to get you to the couch, the geniuses at NBC have dubbed the game Handshake Gate. Gotta love going into work tired because you had to stay up after all four quarters. 
• Denver Broncos (-3) at Atlanta Falcons: I want to see how Jon Gruden handles Peyton Manning. I'm not talking about calling the game. I'm worried for families that watch this game. 

That said, everything else is worth getting invested in. Here are the seven least intriguing games on the schedule in Week Two. In yawning order.

ESPN's John Clayton - Consummate Professional

I don't know nuthin about football, but I do know that this is really funny.

3 NFL Week One Picks That Can't Miss

The worst part about this time of year is hard to put your finger on. The awful memory as a child of going back to school. The days getting shorter. The weather getting colder.

The best part about this time of year? Football. Easy.

The independent voter inside of me is leaning ever closer to D than R these days, and not only on account of foreign policy. This year the football season kicks off on Wednesday because of the Democratic National Convention taking place on a Thursday. What that means is that all those Survivor pools and spread chasers have to get an early start on the action.

New York Giants (-4.5) over the Dallas Cowboys

I don't know what to do about the Cowboys and Giants. Four and a half seems like a lot of points for the defending champs. The last time Eli Manning and the Giants were defending a title they opened the season at home by losing to Dallas by 10 points. Then again Jason Witten will not play for Dallas. It's one of those game I don't need to pick one because I'm just going to watch anyway. However, the next three are too hard to resist:

A Fantasy Football Blurb

A week before this past Friday, Grantland announced a contest to all of its readers in its search for a fantasy football writer.  Pick the 5 best fantasy players and 1 sleeper within the unbelievably difficult task of 750 words, and the 10-12 best submissions would be invited to join a league for the upcoming season. The season would contain certain challenges; dude or girl with the most points at the end gets a one-year contract to write on Simmons' love-child.

Below was my submission to the website, which, if you haven't figured it out by now, presents an easy and lazy way for me to double up and contribute to THE GREAT MAMBINO this week.

Hard Knocks: Looking for Some Talent

It's been a minute since I've posted on the best sports blog you've never read, and to most of my commenters, maybe that's a good thing. YOUR New York Knickerbockers are waiting for the season to start, YOUR New York Yankees play a sport that bores the living daylights out of me if I can't watch it at the ballpark, and the files on top of my desk at work may reach the ceiling at some point.

But no matter what happens, there's always room for TV. And since I've been basing my Manny Pacquiao fight previews on HBO's glorious 24/7 series, it's pretty hard to keep me away from the tube when HBO does their thing.

Hard Knocks goes behind-the-scenes of a real NFL training camp. It started out in 2001, took a break after 2004, then kickstarted again in 2007 when HBO realized that barely anybody watches the network for its movies. In 2010, it landed a hit when the New York Jets hopped on board. We were treated to a litany of amazing clips and soundbytes, featuring head coach Rex Ryan and cornerback Antonio Cromartie:

The NFL Is Not A Role Model: Musings from a former D-III Lineman

(This is a guest post from friend of MAMBINO Dangerous Dave.  Hailing from DC by way of LA, he was deeply struck by last's week shocking death of Junior Seau. Below is his debut post. Check it!)

For eight years, I played football.  I was a pretty good high school player and a mediocre Division III defensive lineman. More often than not, I began each play by banging my head against the opponent’s helmet to gain a small advantage by disorienting the opposing offensive lineman. It wasn’t good technique, but then, I wasn’t very good and needed all the help I could get.

This year, my little brother will be a junior in high school this year. He’s a very good defensive lineman and like I was when I played, he is happiest when he makes a big hit. The tackle that your coaches rewound 50 times in film on Monday.  It’s the same play that we see 100 times every Sunday on CBS, FOX and ESPN. It’s the same play that Junior Seau lived to make.

This is why I am worried.

Cole Hamels Proves that Baseball Sucks

Yesterday, Major League Baseball announced a 5-game suspension for Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels as punishment for intentionally throwing at Washington Nationals rookie outfielder Bryce Harper.

The beaning occurred on Sunday, so after the past 2 days, this is old news. But forgive me for saying it again:

Cole Hamels INTENTIONALLY threw a 5-ounce object with a hard rubber center 93 miles per hour at Bryce Harper. That's called assault and battery. (In D.C., the lowest degree of the offense, "simple assault," would result in Hamels facing up to 6 months in prison.) But since in occurred within the confines of a MLB stadium, then the going rate is 1 missed start and about 500 large in penalties.

Now if 2 days transpiring between the play and this post makes it old news, I guess the weeks-old story of NFL players and coaches being suspended for much larger amounts of time has escaped our subconscious.

T-Sizzle, Alumnus of Ball So Hard University, Out for the Season?

"Sizzle, Ball So Hard University".

This morning, ESPN reported that TerrelL Suggs, Pro Bowl LB for the Baltimore Ravens could miss the '12-'13 NFL season with a torn Achilles tendon. Reportedly, Suggs, perhaps known as T-Sizzle, injured himself while playing basketball this offseason. We can talk having an 8-figure salary and the concept of jeopardizing that by playing game of meaningless pick-up ball later, but for now, let's get some actual analysis from our go-to football wizard, TuckRule:

Rest in Peace, Junior Seau

Instant Trade Analysis: Patriots move up to #21

New England traded the #27 overall pick to Cincinnati, in exchange for the Bengals' #21 pick. The Patriots also included additional picks to go to Cincy, specifically their 3rd round pick.

The Patriots have finally done something with all those picks they’ve been hoarding and traded up for Chandler Jones. I think it’s a great move. Their biggest flaw heading into this offseason was their pass rush and now they’re getting a defensive end who Mike Mayock said could be the best to come out of this draft.

The defending AFC Champions just got a little scarier. They still have another first rounder and I still expect them to trade down, because they always do.

(Ed. update: the Patriots didn't trade down from their 2nd first round pick, but actually traded up again!)