Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Changing the guard

I just watched the Heat go up 2 games to none on the Celtics. LeBron absolutely razed the Celtics team to the ground with 35 punishing points, which was prefaced 2 days earlier by Dwyane Wade's 38 points, largely made on Boston's Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. On the other side of the East bracket, Derrick Rose was just awarded the MVP trophy - and at age 22, he's the youngest to ever win the prestigious award, whose ranks represent a brotherhood of superstars, legends and inevitably, Hall of Famers.

In the West bracket, stand the Oklahoma City Thunder and in only its third year of existence represent something of a stealthy dark horse candidate to win the title. The two leaders of the team, however, are anything but that; Russ Westbrook and Kevin Durant are their two young stars, who are the faces of their franchise and will, before long, be the faces of the league and ultimately, their generation.

I am writing this in front of the TV, as the Thunder play the Memphis Grizzlies; a young squad who just broke through the glass ceiling and took out Tim Duncan's San Antonio Spurs, along with their league-best record and 4 championships. Zach Randolph seems to be using the 2011 playoffs as a platform to show everyone that he belongs in the league's elite, rather in the dark basement where he has toiled after a run of youthful indiscretions in Portland, New York and Los Angeles.

And then there are the Lakers and Mavericks - while Dirk and Kobe will shoot it out for the next 6 or 7 games, everyone realizes that the key to the Lakers' victory is Andrew Bynum, a young 7-footer who's only roadblock on a career trajectory towards greatness has been his own body.

So as I think about the trends of this year's playoffs and what they represent, I find that over and over, my picks are wrong. I have picked the Celtics in 6 games over the Heat, despite no real evidence to support my guttural instincts. I never expected the Grizzlies to overthrow the 4-time champions. I surmised that the Mavericks would beat the Trailblazers, with their twenty-something stars in Wes Matthew, LaMarcus Aldrige and Brandon Roy. I have chosen the Lakers over the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, and while my predictions are obviously influenced by blind faith in something I have no chance of influencing, I can honestly say that regardless of my allegiances, I fully expect the Lakers to prevail.

I was born in 1984 and started watching basketball when I was 10. This was before the world wide interweb, and I knew the stars - Michael, Scottie, Hakeem, Patrick, Charles, Karl, Clyde - all guys that men my age could identify with only one name. But I became a fully-formed fan in the advent of the information age and of course, the players that were born with it - Kobe, AI, Shaquille, Ray, Garnett, Pierce, Nash, Duncan, Dirk, Tracy, Webber. These were - are - my guys. That is my NBA. They are the players that I knew when I learned what basketball was, how it sometimes is played and how it should be played. They didn't always display the right type of basketball values that my dad taught me, but overall, they personified the type of hustle, intensity and gamesmanship he told me a man should play with. They weren't always the most team oriented, nor did they say the right things or keep their personal feelings towards one another to themselves. But I can safely say that these guys were competitive. They only knew compromise for the sake of winning and would only do so if he felt it was on his terms. Victory was the only acceptable outcome - any of the guys I named would gladly shank someone for the chance to sniff a championship. And in some of their cases, they did just that. Metaphorically speaking. I think.

And that's why my picks skew the way that they do. Despite the age of Kobe, Garnett, Ray, Pierce and Duncan, I expect them to win. It doesn't matter that I can see drops in physical skills, whether it be the speed in their legs, the lift in their jump or the strength on the block. I can see that these young guys, some younger than me, are faster, stronger and just flat-out BETTER than Kobe, Garnett, Ray, Pierce and Duncan - and with the exception of Kobe, it's being proven as we speak. But I just believe that these guys - MY guys - are going to win because that's all I've ever seen them do. I can't help it. I have been inexorably attached to a group of men one generation removed from mine that I have no material connection to. Even as I write these words and look at these statistics, I still feel in my heart that the Celtics will pull themselves out a hole and win this series. Only 14 teams in NBA history have EVER done that. But I still truthfully believe it.

I was 6 years old in June, 1991. That's the year that Michael and Scottie and the Bulls beat Magic, Worthy and the rest of the Lakers for the championship. That was the championship season that changed the era - the very visible pivot that took the league in another direction. The NBA no longer belonged to Kareem, McHale, Parish, Isaiah, Dominique, Larry or Magic. It belonged to Michael, Scottie, Hakeem, Clyde, Ewing, Charles, Stockton, Malone and Robinson - and history shows that. Those men combined for 17 titles and 23 Finals appearances in the next decade. The guard changed. Someone new had come and whether the NBA, the fans or anyone else was ready for it, it happened in 1991 and the league never looked back.

Is that happening now? Is this the year that LeBron breaks through and wins the title? Could Kevin Durant go on to face the Lakers, Kobe and his 5 titles and raise his hand in victory, as Michael had done over Isaiah and the Pistons and Magic and the Lakers 10 years ago? LeBron and Wade, both of which have never known the feeling of champagne on their faces as the Celtics simultaneously put theirs into their hands, might finally understand that sensation.

If you look back on the last 30 years of the NBA, it seems to happen right around the decade marker. Magic's 1980 title signaled the beginning of his generation's reign, and the league's Golden Era. Until 1991, he was considered the greatest player ever to live. 7 years later, Jordan retired as the greatest ever to live and Scottie, Hakeem, Clyde, Ewing, Charles, Stockton, Malone and Robinson got old. Tim Duncan, today regarded as the greatest power forward to ever grace (never a more appropriate word) the court, won the title in 1999. Kobe, AI, Shaquille, Ray, Garnett, Pierce, Nash, Duncan, Dirk, Tracy and Webber took the baton and with 16 titles and 20 Finals appearances, it's their time until someone shows them that it is not.

Wade, LeBron, Rose, Durant, Westbrook, Randolph and Bosh are still in the playoffs. There could be 6 weeks left in the reign of my NBA. Or maybe Dirk, Kobe, Kevin, Ray and Paul will make it 58.

My guys are on borrowed time now. I know that. But I really hope my son is not asking me for my playoff picks from 2011 - just like I'm going to do tonight when I'll call my dad tonight and ask him what his playoff picks looked like 20 years ago.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

ESPN possesses the GPS location of me and my friends

Last week I showed you guys how Chris Sheridan committed a Jersey Shore level robbery on my Kurt-Thomas-to-the-Knicks request. This week? None other than the sportswriter of our time, Bill Simmons.

"To the Knicks ... why are they keeping Mike D'Antoni again? I say trade him to the Warriors for a second-round pick and let him find his Part 1 of his three-part manifest destiny: coaching a team that scores 110 points a game, can't get a defensive stop, has two guards scoring 30-plus a game and occassionally plays home games that make you say, "158-153 -- is that a bowling score or the score of last night's Warriors game?"

On Sunday, during Game 1 of Heat-Celtics, Crapapples texted me this:

"A game like today's really puts into perspective how bad your Knicks are on D. The Celts went from looking like the '06 Suns to the '03 Pistons."

When I responded that it was exactly why 'Antoni had to go, he unleashed this gem:

"... to the Warriors."

Simmons, you're lucky that Crapapps cares more about owning the rights to sloths than taking the time to bust you. Craps, you can't take text messages "off the record" like Gchat, so suck it.

Monday, May 2, 2011

2nd Round Predictions, East and West

While I was only off on 2 series, resident MAMBINO writer BockerKnocker destroyed me in exactly accurate predictions 3 to 1 (neither of us had the appropriate winners or games in 4 series - the Hornets looked like Memphis in the title game, the Knicks looked like Butler in the title game and Memphis George Mason-ed us). I am unapologetic about my picks and, if you read on, obviously I have not learned my lesson.

The East


Chicago (1) vs. Atlanta (5)


Why the Bulls will win in 6

Chicago is the better team, without a doubt. Atlanta should be happy to be here after dusting off Orlando, but I get the sense that they don't feel that way. The Deadbeats look a little more confident than usual. Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson will explode for a couple of games, but that's it. Too much Rose for the Hawks to make real noise.

Why the Bulls will sweep the Deadbeats, and why this time I'm right
My opinion of the Deadbeats stays the absolute same - the only reason why they won the last series is that they found a bigger team of deadbeats then themselves. It seems to me that the addition of Vince Carter to the squad last year was the death knell of this NBA Finals team. Vinsanity really outdid himself this time - his apathy was so strong and infectious, that he was able to get the entire Magic team, with the exception of Dwight, to not care about anything that happened on the court. The Magic lost the series because they didn't play together, took terrible shots and played without any passion whatsoever. Dwight was being absolutely hounded inside and unlike 2009, no one was there to help him and pick up the slack. Regardless of their series victory, my disdainful opinion of the Deadbeats still stands. I think they will be exposed for the frauds and thieves they are when Chicago dismantles them. Noah will abuse Horford like it was practice in 2007 Gainesville and with the injury to Hinrich, I see no way of any sufficient ball movement on Atlanta's side.


Miami (2) vs. Boston (3)

Why the Boston Celtics will win in 6
I really don't have a lot of logic for this one. Miami is playing better than it has all season, with LeBron, Wade and even Bosh playing to the height of their powers. Chalmers and Bibby are doing enough to fill their roles and Joel Anthony is doing just enough to stay on the court. Miami looks hungry and has a chip on their shoulders about being beaten by Boston all season - in fact, neither LeBron, Bosh or Wade have ever beaten the core of KG, Rondo, Pierce and Ray in the playoffs. They are angry and out for blood.

BUT - the last fact remains true. Despite the changes in personnel, the Celtics have never lost to any of these guys in the playoffs. I fully expect KG to make Bosh his whipping boy, and for another shoot-out between Pierce and Bron. Rondo is playing seemingly back to form and if he plays at that level, he's the key to the series - as Miami has no one to stop him.

Why the Two Cowards and Wade will win in 7
If the Heat finished the regular season with the best record in the league, people still wouldn't take them seriously. This is because too many things affect the outcome of regular season games. The playoffs are obviously a different story. This series in particular will be the first concrete measure we will get on Miami, and fear of failure will push them to new heights. LeBron, Wade, and even Bosh have opened our eyes with their talent, but this series will demonstrate their willingness to go the extra mile. Either way, I'm not gonna be upset when one of these teams goes home.


The West


OKC (4) vs. Memphis (8)


Why the Thunder will end it in 6
This series ends in 6 if, and only if, the Thunder's revamped front line can contain a Zach Barkley and Pau's brother from abusing OKC like they abused the Spurs. Tony Allen and Shane Battier will have some level of success over Westbrook and Durant, but like the Z-Bo/Gasol vs. Serge/Perkins battle, I only expect Tony and Shane to limit, not shut down. The Thunder have proven to me that they can win on the road, and if they can contain that monster front line, especially in the fourth quarter, then this could be over in 6

Why the Grizz could push it to 7
When you play defense, you can win anywhere. Both teams will get dirty and fight to the bitter end. Unfortunately, Durant will not be stopped, and I think Westbrook will overwhelm Mike Conley and Greivis Vazquez in key moments. Either way, Zach Randolph v. the Perkins/Ibaka combo will be the matchup of the entire second round. Trust me.


Lakers (2) vs. Dallas (3)

Why the Lake Show takes it in game 7
The Lakers might not take Dallas seriously for a little while. The Hornets series showed that Kobe and Co. will try to win games being lazy, maybe to save energy for the Finals. However, when this series is tied 2-2, Afro Kobe will come out and unleash some thundering dunks on Brendan Haywood. Dallas needs to retool its roster, and maybe this is the series that finally tells Mark Cuban to do something different.

Why the Lakers could send the Mavs home in 5
When the Lakers aren't dismissive, they are the most dangerous. Looking at their worst losses this season, it seems like most of them are because the team wakes up that morning and thinks "Nice. Milwaukee tonight. I wonder where I'm going to dinner afterwards?". I disagree with Christian - the Lakers are confident, but unlike they were against NOLA, they are wary of a team that tied their record and beat them twice in the regular season.

Against Dallas this season, Pau averaged 20 points on 55% shooting this season, Bynum 16 ppg and 12 rpg on 70% shooting, and Lamar with 15 and 8, on 51% shooting. People can talk all they want about Dallas having "18 fouls to put on the Lakers bigs", but obviously that doesn't have any bearing when they are throwing up a combined 51 a game on you.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Lakers Recap: I'm sorry mom

Well, as my mother always said, Better late than never.

She actually never said that, she just yelled at me and told me that I'd better turn my shit on time. Sorry mom.

The good news for Lakers fans is that your team played well on Thursday night. The better news is that they could have won by 30 if they wanted to.

The Lakers won this series for a few reasons, but none that everyone doesn't know at this point - they are the biggest team in the league, they pound you to death with their inside offensive game, they outrebound you on both ends of the court...and that's before me even talking about Kobe Bryant.

The Lake Show scored a relatively low 98 points (though, not surprising against a suffocating and well-coached NOLA defense), but had pretty balanced scoring; Kobe with 24, Bynum with 18, Lamar with 14 and Pau with 16. And that's what is the most problematic part of the Lakers' offensive attack - sure, you "held" Pau to 16, but Drew had 18. Kobe shot 6 for 16, but that attention you paid to him helped Shannon Brown score 8 points in 18 minutes. It's a "pick your poison" problem with the Lakers. Locking down on one player just means another one will pick up the slack.

But besides the dominance of the bigs inside and the varied Lakers offense, one of the primary reasons that the Lakers won this series is that they have one of the best disruptive perimeter defenses in the league. Even with Derek Fisher's well-chronicled defensive shortcomings, the Lakers play the passing lanes to perfection, which enabled the Lakers to get pall to turnover the ball 3.7 times during this series, as opposed to 2.2 during the regular season. Also, after watching a healthy dose of NBA basketball this year with my new favorite/spare-time-crippling service, NBA League Pass, I can safely say that maybe only the Celtics drive perimeter players into two man defensive traps than the Lakers do. How many times during this series did you see CP3 or Jarrett Jack or Carl Landry stuck in the corner with the ball, with an impenetrable wall of human in front of them? A lot. And even if that sentence sounded strange to you, or maybe even creepily and oddly familiar, that's why despite the incredible play of the inside, the Lakers are the most multi-dimensional teams in the league.

Bring on Dallas.

If I were GM...of the Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns went from the Western Conference Finals to under .500 in a year. A lot of their regression has been pretty well covered - they essentially switched Amar'e Stoudemire and Jason Richardson for Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress Channing Frye, Marcin Gortat and this old, fat slow guy who kind of resembled Tracy McGrady's cousin. It's not hard to see why they got worse. Let's take a look at their payroll going forward:

Steve Nash: 11.7 million
Childress: 6 million
Gortat: 6.8 million
Mickael Pietrus: 5.3 million (player option)
Channing Frye: 5.6 million
Warrick: 4.3 million
Jared Dudley: 4.2 million
Aaron Brooks: 2.9 million
Robin Lopez: 2.8 million
Gani Lawal: 788,000
Garret Siler: 788,000
________________________
$48.39 million = about 9 million in cap space.

Expiring:
Vince Carter 17.3 million
Grant Hill: 3.3 million
Some other bums: 500,000

1). It's time
Trade Steve Nash. He's 37 years old and a future Hall of Famer. It's time to trade him.

I'm not just saying this because I like Nash and I want a better future for him, although that's part of it. I'm saying it because they just don't have the leeway to build another team around him. I've heard Nash in some interviews, saying "I don't want to be traded. I want to stay right here...look at us two years ago after we missed the playoffs. We came right back the next year and went to the Western Conference finals". And I believe that. They were totally out of the playoffs, but then they got Jason Richardson, made a couple more moves and pushed the Lakers to a tough (but never really in doubt, in my opinion) 6 games last season. However, at this point, I just don't see that type of move there for them and more importantly, it's not like they are building around Nash-Hill-Stoudemire. They are building around Nash-Dudley-Gortat. And maybe even more importantly, there is going to be a lockout this season, which may spell the end of Grant Hill's star-crossed NBA career and add another year onto Steve Nash's body. It's time to trade him.

In a perfect world, they would trade him for a couple of draft picks, a decent point guard prospect and a big man. Dallas (Beaubois, Jason Terry and Mahinmi?), New York (Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Chauncey?), Orlando (Jameer, Brandon Bass?) Portland (Nic Batum, Oden?) and the Clippers (Mo Williams, Eric Bledsoe?) might all be potential destinations.

2). I'd kindly ask Alvin Gentry to ask his players to start playing defense
With Nash and his defensive shortcomings gone, I would kindly ask coach Alvin Gentry to try and get his guys to play defense. And by "kindly ask" I mean "do it or be fired".

Jared Dudley, Robin Lopez, Pietrus and Gortat (all rotation players) can all be good defensive players - they just play in a system that doesn't demand that from them. I think the switch could be thrown easily.

3). Resign Vince Carter at all costs
Obviously not. Don't be stupid. Just seeing if you're paying attention.

4) With the number 14 pick, draft for talent, not need
Because the Suns have every need imaginable. They are somewhat set at the center position with the rotation of Gortat, Sideshow Lopez, Warrick and Channing Frye, but they lack a true power forward, shooting guard, and if they trade Nash, a point.

5). Brace your fans for a rebuilding process
Obviously owner Robert Sarver isn't big on spending money. In the last several years he's given away Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala and Nate Robinson's rights for cash or future draft picks. He didn't spend money when the team was winning 60 games a season, so I don't think it's fair to expect him to spend the money now. The Suns need to be straight up with their fans and brace them for the future to come. Phoenix is a great town to play in with a rich tradition - they're small market in many ways, but have a consistent, winning franchise. With pieces like Gortat, Dudley and whatever they could get for Nash, I can see them making the playoffs again in a couple years.